This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
I said it before Week 3: The most important stat in fantasy football is points against.
In the first round of the playoffs of a league that my team was tops in scoring, I drew the fourth seed. I led the league by a healthy margin but also had the third-most points scored against me, so sadly I entered the playoffs an average 7-6. And I had that revelation I unloaded prior to Week 3 crammed down my throat in epic fashion. Despite starting the optimal lineup I could from a group of players that had consistently racked up points all year, I was more than doubled-up (230.68 – 114.7 to be exact). This was my lowest score of the year versus the highest score in the entire league for the entire year. Talk. About. Your. Bad. Beats.
The points were inflated because of PPR and various bonuses, but c'mon, 230 freaking points? It doesn't get much uglier than that. The beating was comprehensive, but the CliffsNotes version sums it up well. My top three running backs: Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and Spencer Ware. The other guy's top three running backs: Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill and Le'Veon "the single-handed breaker of so many fantasy hearts" Bell.
So why do I bring up my still-gaping playoff wound and the points-against stat?
As a reminder to enjoy these weeks. The playoffs are the reward for months of dedication and vigilance, but sadly as much as you can do to position your team for the most possible points, you can't control how your opponent's players perform. Once you recognize that, the stress of choosing your lineup and watching the games unfold can turn into joy. Maybe it will be your last week. Maybe you'll be the last man or woman standing. Either way, if you're still playing, you've already had a good season and still have the chance at a great one. Crack a beer, watch your favorite team or players and revel in the uncontrollable, chaotic, amazing madness that is fantasy football.
If you were looking for actual strategic advice beyond the 28 player observations below, go to last week's column and re-read the intro. Those exact suggestions remain unchanged for how to approach selecting the optimal lineup.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative for based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.
UPGRADE:
Quarterback
Trevor Siemian, DEN vs. NE
Think Siemian will need to throw it much when he has absolutely no support from a non-existent run game going up against a top-10 New England run defense and facing a Tom Brady-led offense that will score some points? Yeah, me too. Boosted by volume in his last four appearances (40.5 attempts per on average), Siemian amassed 1,243 yards and eight TDs in that stretch, including consecutive showings of at least 334 yards. With two top-tier wideouts in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the trending up for Siemian should continue against a Patriots defense that's played the most ridiculous list of ineffective passers this year -- a long list that includes the likes of Brock Osweiler, Charlie Whitehurst, Landry Jones, Colin Kaepernick and Jared Goff. Translation: ignore any stats on its pass defense.
Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LA
Don't be scared off. Yes, it's a short week. And sure, Wilson has just two touchdown passes to eight interceptions in his last three contests. What one should focus on, however, is how Seattle responded to the smaller scale thumping the Buccaneers gave them on the road before they returned home and annihilated Carolina. Wilson will be chomping at the bit to earn redemption, and against a division rival that just jettisoned their head coach, he will. After all, Matt Ryan shredded this same defense last week in Los Angeles for three touchdowns and had the likes of Taylor Gabriel, Nick Williams and Aldrick Robinson as his leading receivers.
Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. CLE
The league-leader in passing touchdowns allowed (30), the Browns have been burned by Dak Prescott, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Andy Dalton for a combined 11 scores in its last five games alone. Taylor tends to do as much damage with his legs as with his arm, but with Sammy Watkins' play improving each week and Taylor's job being called into question, don't be surprised to see this fierce competitor at his sharpest against a Cleveland team destined for a winless season.
Running Back
Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. SF
The safer move in fantasy is typically to base a start decision on highest expected yardage output, not touchdowns. Touchdowns tend to be highly unpredictable after you get beyond the top 5-10 tailbacks and receivers. But sometimes an electric talent or elite red zone weapon defies that philosophy. Coleman fits that bill to a "T" as he boasts both the explosive homerun ability and also the quickness and strength to hammer in scores from short. Want some evidence? How about the nine touchdowns in 10 games on only 110 touches (or put differently, a score on every 12.2 touches on average). Facing the embarrassingly-generous Niners run D, Coleman is a top-10 play who will reach paydirt.
Bilal Powell, NYJ vs. MIA
In the three career games in which Powell has received 20-plus carries he has a combined 370 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including two explosions for over 140 on the ground. Among running backs with at least 75 carries this year, his 5.8 YPC is tops. The Dolphins, conveniently for Powell, are allowing 4.8 YPC, good for second-worst in the league. When Matt Forte, who gashed Miami for 92 yards and a score on 12 carries in their first meeting, has to sit this one out with a knee injury, expect plenty of Powell for a Jets offense low on playmakers but high on player auditions.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL vs. PHI
Baltimore has passed the torch from Terrance West to Dixon. The dynamic rookie with superior receiving skills saw 19 touches to West's six versus New England, producing 81 scrimmage yards and catching a touchdown in the process. It marked the fourth time in five games the youngster has tallied at least 77 yards. Now he gets to face an Eagles defense that's allowed over 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing score to an opposing backfield in each of its four straight losses, with five backs hitting paydirt.
T.J. Yeldon, JAC at HOU
The Texans have allowed at least 85 scrimmage yards or a touchdown to running backs in every game this season, including the 100 yards totaled by Yeldon and Chris Ivory five weeks ago. Since then, Ivory has missed two games with a hamstring injury while Yeldon has seen at least 17 touches and ripped off at least 82 yards in each. With the backfield almost entirely to himself, look for the second-year Bama product to keep churning out the yards.
Isaiah Crowell, CLE at BUF
Crowell fell on hard times in the middle of the season after a torrid start to the year on the ground (394 yards, 6.5 YPC, three touchdowns in four games). He's bounced back the last couple of games, however, with 209 scrimmage yards and a triple-digit rushing day last week. With a tenderized Buffalo defense on tap that's allowed 477 rushing yards and six touchdowns to opposing backfields in its last three games, Crowell should stay hot. While those numbers are inflated by the historic stampeding Le'Veon Bell just hit them with, it's tough to ignore that the Bills are only three weeks away from allowing a trio of Jacksonville tailbacks to total 100 yards and a score on the ground.
Wide Receiver
Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. CLE
See Taylor, Tyrod. It's easy to throw on Cleveland, in case that wasn't clear. And Watkins, who has been progressing more and more into game condition, is far and away the best receiving option for the Bills.
Tyreek Hill, KC vs. TEN
If you do not view Hill as a top-20 fantasy receiver yet, it's possible you're just not paying close enough attention. He's a high-floor, high-ceiling type of player. Hill has racked up a minimum of 55 scrimmage yards in seven of his last eight contests (floor) and has tallied seven touchdowns in that same stretch, including games of three and two scores (ceiling). Now the Titans' hapless secondary represents arguably his easiest matchup of the season with the fantasy playoffs in full swing. In its last eight contests, Tennessee has allowed eight different wideouts to produce at least 97 yards while giving up 12 touchdowns to the position. Moreover, the Titans are the only team in the league to have given up two punt return scores, which, you know, is kinda convenient for the league's most dynamic return man.
Rishard Matthews, TEN at KC
Prior to getting nearly blanked (one catch, 26 yards) in a matchup with Denver's elite corners, Matthews had produced at least 82 yards or a touchdown in eight of nine contests. He'll be looking to get back on track versus a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-most yards to wide receivers in the league at an average of 192.7 per game. The cold could again be a factor in Arrowhead, but it should be noted that -- unlike Derek Carr (finger) -- nothing is wrong with Marcus Mariota's throwing hand, and Matthews, who boasts a 64.7 percent career catch rate, shouldn't have issues bringing in passes with a pair of strong mitts of his own.
Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. MIA
In the last six quarters with Bryce Petty under center, his best friend, Mr. Anderson, has 22 targets, 172 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Next up for this unlikely duo is a weak Dolphins secondary that has allowed 16 touchdowns to wide receivers, including, oddly enough, a league-high three rushing scores to the position. That last part is only worth noting because Anderson has three carries for 42 yards this year, including two rushes last week, and because his 4.34-speed is a huge asset to an offense that figures to be missing Forte's services.
Steve Smith, BAL vs. PHI
After DeSean Jackson burned Philly for over 100 yards and a score and Pierre Garcon grabbed his third TD of the season, the tally against this steadily declining Eagles secondary is now at 11 touchdowns allowed to wide receivers in the last six games and five 90-plus-yard performances given up in its last four. And, coincidentally, Smith could be playing the final home game of his Hall of Fame career. Look for one of the fiercest competitors in league history to be at his sharpest in a pivotal game for Baltimore's playoff hopes.
Larry Fitzgerald, AZ vs. NO
The season is lost. Michael Floyd, in many ways Fitzgerald's protégé, is suddenly gone. The Saints are in town. Just nine receptions away from his fourth 100-catch season, the greatest player in franchise history could very well be playing his final game in the desert. The end.
Tight End
Vernon Davis, WAS vs. CAR
Since Luke Kuechly left in the fourth quarter versus the Saints in Week 11, the Panthers have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game, including to Coby Fleener after Kuechly was knocked out in that contest. Two of the others to snag scores against a defense that has now given up the most fantasy points to tight ends: Clive Walford and Hunter Henry. To say Davis is a steep upgrade from the aforementioned trio would be a huge understatement. With Jordan Reed (shoulder) far from 100 percent healthy, look for Davis to get back on track after last week's stinker.
Ladarius Green, PIT at CIN
None of the Steelers' pass catching options were needed last week when Le'Veon Bell went all superhero on the Bills, but Green is still just a game removed from a breakout performance and is about to register another versus a Bengals defense that's allowed the most yards in the league to the tight end position (72.1 per game).
DOWNGRADE:
Quarterback
Tom Brady, NE at DEN
It's Brady's turn to ride the carousel of pain versus a Denver pass defense that will try to carry the defending Super Bowl champs back to the playoffs. While you're not about to bench Brady because you likely have no other good options, this is also not the game to expect a vintage Brady shredding like Baltimore got on Monday night. The Broncos are in the bottom of the pack stopping the run, so heavy doses of LeGarrette Blount will likely be Bill Belichick's method of exacting revenge for last year's AFC Championship game loss.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CIN
In his last four games Roethlisberger has twice been held out of the end zone, and this last time around the Bills picked him off three times. The Steelers have gone run-heavy in that stretch to play more ball control and protect Big Ben from big hits, resulting in the Canton-bound gunslinger averaging just over 30.0 attempts per contest. Since they won all four behind Bell's dominance, don't expect much to change against a Bengals defense that's tied for second in interceptions (15) and in the top 10 in YPA allowed (6.8).
Andrew Luck, IND at MIN
The stats are tough to ignore. The Vikings have given up the second-fewest YPA (6.3), have a 15-to-12 TD-to-INT ratio and are third in the league in sacks (35). Luck, meanwhile, has taken 37 sacks (good for second-most), has thrown six picks in his last five appearances, and hasn't registered a 300-yard day since October 23. Losing Donte Moncrief to a hammy injury certainly doesn't help his cause either. If a very good Vikings secondary can bottle up T.Y. Hilton, it will be a long day for Luck.
Cam Newton, CAR at WAS
In Newton's six road games so far this season, he's thrown for more than 246 yards just once, been held under 200 yards three times, and has multiple scores in three of those. His top two receivers -- Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin -- have each snagged just one touchdown since October 2nd. The Redskins are fourth in the league in sacks with 34. All things add up to Newton being a really frightening guy to rely on for your fantasy playoff life.
Drew Brees, NO at AZ
In its last four contests the Saints demolished the Rams and had that favor returned to them (to a lesser extent) by the Panthers, Lions and Bucs, two of which were on the road. In those three outings, aside from two fourth-quarter scores at Carolina, Brees slugged through 11 quarters with zero TDs to his name and seven picks. Now he's taking a team that has the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs to face the second-most stingy pass defense in football with his top receiver in Michael Thomas sure to be limited due to a foot injury, if he's not sidelined again.
Running Back
Mark Ingram, NO at AZ
Simply can't play him. There's just no way. Stuck in a timeshare with Tim Hightower, Ingram has seen more than 15 touches just once since Week 7. Now the Saints' dysfunctional offense has almost completely abandoned the run altogether (Ingram received seven carries in two straight losses) and they have to travel to an Arizona defense that's allowed by far the fewest scrimmage yards per game to running backs (just 90.0 per).
Spencer Ware, KC vs. TEN
In Ware's first six games he averaged 5.2 YPC and racked up 285 receiving yards. In his last six those numbers have dipped drastically to 3.7 and 117 respectively. Versus Atlanta and Oakland the last two weeks he's rushed a combined 34 times for 85 yards (2.5 YPC) and hasn't produced a run of at least 10 yards in three straight. Whether it's teams daring Alex Smith to beat him with his arm or a dramatic decline in blocking or Ware's seemingly abundant motor running cold, the end result is a stifled ground game. A beefy Titans front seven that has allowed a total of 209 rushing yards by running backs in its last four contests is not about to make things any easier on Ware.
Frank Gore, IND at MIN
The league's elder statesman of running backs, Gore has only topped 100 scrimmage yards twice this season. That means to provide a double-digit fantasy day he has to get in the end zone. Fortunately for his owners he's managed that feat in seven games. Unfortunately for them this week, Gore faces a Vikings defense that's allowed only seven scores all season to running backs. In fact, over its last seven games, only the elite (and much younger) likes of Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson and Jordan Howard hit paydirt versus the stout Minnesota D.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown, PIT at CIN
Benching him is not an option, but don't expect Brown to be the superstar we've grown accustomed to in recent years. In Week 2 against a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-fewest catches and third-fewest yards to wide receivers held Brown to a season-low four catches and 39 yards (both numbers tied vs. Miami), and they did so with him seeing 11 targets. Moreover, that performance occurred before Mr. Bell returned from suspension to dominate touches for the Pittsburgh offense. In 10 contests together, Brown has only two 100-yard efforts, so unless he gets in the end zone, there's a good chance he'll be held to a single-digit fantasy day.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE at DEN
Mitchell has four touchdowns in his last four games and no worse than 82 yards or a score in any of them. He's emerging as a favorite outside target and top red zone weapon for Brady. But he's failed to top 50 yards twice during his hot streak and will now have to match wits with the best cornerback duo in football, one of which should consistently be shadowing the rookie. The fantasy playoffs are not the time to get this cute.
Brandin Cooks, NO at AZ
In his last four games Cooks has a goose egg in the box score and 187 scrimmage yards on 22 touches in his other three showings, the last of which came without Thomas (foot) around to steal targets. A pitiful 9.3 yards per catch has not aided Cooks, but it's a trend that's been showing up all season. The third-year wideout has seven games with 11.0 YPC or worse and that's not counting his no-catch debacle. If Thomas returns, Cooks sees less targets. If he doesn't, Cooks sees more coverage. It's a lose-lose proposition. On the road, versus the second-ranked Arizona pass defense, the Saints' diminutive speedster is destined to keep disappointing.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett, NE at DEN
Bennett has had some significant slumps this season as he's dealt with a nagging ankle injury. In fact, six of his last eight games resulted in zero scores and a measly 128 yards. While he'll certainly be needed versus the Broncos' vaunted pass defense, Bennett will be fighting heavy odds that he turns in another dud given how Denver has not allowed more than 43 yards to a tight end in six of its last seven outings.
