College Capper: Picking Winners Week 5

Chris' Picks

A 4-1 week has quickly turned my record favorably. I'm still a bit shocked by Temple's dud for my loss last week. Still don't feel I'm in a steady groove and need a sound Week 5 before I'm fully willing to believe in myself.

Duke +3 at Virginia Tech (Friday)

In full disclosure, I try to target three-ish games Sunday night when lines first come out, and stick to them when I pen this column. That is incredibly scary here, as I locked in on Duke at +7, and it slowly has moved as low as +2.5 in some places. I'm hoping that movement may help in the end and force some money on the Hokies, maybe pushing this back to a +3.5 range. By all means, line shop. On the field, I've been impressed with the effort Duke has turned in, competing with Alabama in Week 1, despite the final score, and blowing out Middle Tennessee and North Carolina A&T by a combined 55 points while allowing  31. The same can't be said for the Hokies, who have labored to wins over Old Dominion and Furman, while their loss to Boston College doesn't look like a "good" loss. I find the Blue Devils to be the far better coached team, and they've won two of their last three in Lane Stadium. Line movement be damned, I think they can and will win outright.

Liberty -7 vs. New Mexico

Hugh Freeze's Flames' offense is getting cranked up, scoring 97 points in their last two games after putting up only 14 in their first two. That seems like bad news for the Lobos, who rank third-to-last defensively, allowing 49.7 points per game. Further troubling is their last-ranked pass defense that allows 404.0 ypg. The Lobos can score (36.0 ppg), but the Flames' duo of QB Stephen Calvert and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden should be unstoppable.

UL-Monroe -16 vs. South Alabama

The Jaguars entered the year expected to be one of the worst teams in FBS but put up a fight in Week 1 at Nebraska before easily taking down FCS Jackson State. Since then, they've been woeful, scoring just nine total points against Memphis and UAB in route to losing by a combined 68 points. I'm not putting a lot of stock in ULM's huge defeat at Iowa State last week, as they were traveling after heartbreak at Florida State the week prior. Their 25th-ranked rushing attack went for 210 yards last week despite the blowout and should go wild against USA's 104th-ranked rush defense.

SMU -7.5 at South Florida

The Mustangs are 4-0 ATS to open, including last week's three-point outright win as 7.5-point underdogs to TCU. A second straight road trip against a seemingly inferior opponent may be an obvious letdown spot, but the Bulls don't appear capable of an upset. Blake Barnett has been benched in favor of RS freshman Jordan McCloud, who isn't likely to be ready for this challenge. SMU is averaging 43.5 ppg, while USF has scored only 10 points total in two games against FBS competition. Perhaps McCloud finds lightning in a bottle early as an unknown, but after adjustments, the Mustangs put their foot down.

Clemson -26.5 at North Carolina

It's a huge number, and maybe it makes less sense when you read my disclaimers on other games below. But Clemson has allowed 14 points or fewer in every game this year, scoring 41 or more in every outing except a trip to Texas A&M. UNC's defense was leaky last week against Appalachian State, and we haven't really seen Clemson step on throats the way Alabama has early in games, but rather a methodical extension of leads. That changes here as the Tigers score at will, and continue to not give up much.

A few for the road: UCF (-43) vs. UConn and Wisconsin (-24.5) vs. Northwestern are too high a number to include here, but I feel strongly they both over easily. I'm not buying Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami (Oh) despite the Bulls showing last week. Miami opened at (-5) and is due a win after a brutal opening schedule of Ohio State, Cincinnati and Iowa. And finally, we can't go to the UMass well this week against lowly Akron (-7.5). Or can we?

Last week: 4-1; Season: 12-10

GREG'S PICKS

A mixed bag last week as three games were decided early and two went down to the wire. Unfortunately, the two that went down to the wire did not end up in my favor. In total, it was a 2-3 week, with easy winners on Illinois and Wisconsin and losses on Northwestern, and the overs in the FSU and Texas games. Of the two overs, the Texas game was probably more painful as after a three-point first quarter, the teams combined for 38 points in the 2nd. At that point, I assumed the game had turned and it would only be a matter of time before the over hit, but alas, things didn't go my way. That happens and perhaps I'm stockpiling some breaks that might start coming my way soon. 

Wisconsin (-24.5) vs Northwestern

This line gives me a little pause as Wisconsin is not the type of team that generally lights up the scoreboard, but Northwestern might be the worst team in the Big Ten this season. The Wildcats scored seven points against a leaky Stanford defense in Week 1 and surrendered 31 points to a punchless Michigan State offense — they have all sides covered! The only concern is a letdown, but with Kent next up on the schedule, it should be easy to refocus for this conference matchup.            
Indiana (+14) at Michigan State 

I was burned a couple weeks back when I sided with Indiana against Ohio State and while the Hoosiers failed miserably in that spot, this is an entirely different situation as MSU doesn't have nearly the firepower of OSU. The Spartans got some separation from Northwestern last week, but as we've covered already, the Wildcats are dreadful on both sides of the ball. Indiana is no juggernaut either, but the Hoosiers should be able to move the ball more efficiently and stay within the number. In addition, the Spartans have Ohio State up next and there's no doubt that some of their attention will be on the Buckeyes.         

South Carolina (-3) vs Kentucky 

Expectations weren't super high for South Carolina entering this season, but the Gamecocks certainly expected things to go a little better than they have to this point. The funny thing is, they are 1-3, but only one of those losses was unexpected, the other two are justifiable. In other words, it might not be as bad as it looks from the outside. Kentucky started the season down its two best players and then lost its QB early in the season. The fill-in, Sawyer Smith, had not exactly wowed to this point and doesn't seem capable of being a difference-maker that will be needed in this situation.

Virginia (+12.5) at Notre Dame

Virginia is 4-0, but the Cavs haven't necessarily looked the part of an undefeated team for most of the season. That is likely behind this line and its movement upward in the last few days, but I think the public is on the wrong side. Notre Dame showed well last week at Georgia, but that game is bound to have some lasting effects as games against teams like Georgia generally are more exhausting than the typical game. Virginia's QB Bryce Perkins continues to improve and will be a thorn in the Irish's side all day.     

North Texas (-7.5) vs Houston 

This game could be pesky or it could be over very early. It all depends on how the Cougars respond to their QB jumping ship mid-season. The Cougars might come out on fire, ticked off about how their QB gave up on them, but even if they do, is there enough offense without D'Eriq King? The flip side is, Houston is demoralized and doesn't show up at all. In such a case, this one could get ugly. I expect them to play hard early, but as the game wears on, the realization that this season is already over will sink in and North Texas wins with ease.  

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 9-11-1