NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Thursday, December 12

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Thursday, December 12

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a non-Emirates NBA Cup three-game slate on tap for Thursday night, a bit of more conventional play on an unusual week. The injury report is thankfully light, preserving much of what is already a compact player pool. We also have less ultra-expensive options than usual at the top end, which should aid in helping us create more balanced lineups.

Slate Overview

For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes

Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, 12/12 @11:00 a.m. ET:    

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-12.5) (O/U: 227.0)
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat (-10.5) (O/U: 224.5)
Sacramento Kings (-7) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 231.5)

Point spreads don't bode well for the chances of fully competitive games Thursday, although, as we frequently say, anything can happen once the games tip off. In fact, the biggest favorite of the night, the Celtics, have already gotten more than they bargained for from inferior teams on a few occasions this season.

The projected totals are solid when judged in a vacuum, with all three games having the potential for plenty of strong individual DFS-friendly performances.

Injury Situations to Monitor   

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.

Jayson Tatum, BOS (knee): QUESTIONABLE

If Tatum were to sit out, not only would the Celtics' projected advantage take a hit, but the usage for the likes of Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis would see an appreciable bump.

Other notable injuries:

Zion Williamson, NOP (hamstring): OUT
Brandon Ingram, NOP (ankle): OUT
Scottie Barnes, TOR (ankle): OUT
Jose Alvarado, NOP (hamstring): OUT
Jordan Hawkins, NOP (back): OUT
Sam Hauser, BOS (thigh): DOUBTFUL
Jimmy Butler, MIA (knee): PROBABLE

Elite Players

We have one player with a five-figure salary on Thursday's slate, and that's Jayson Tatum ($10,100).

As already mentioned, Tatum is dealing with his lingering knee injury. His only absence of the season came against this same Pistons team three games ago, but if he does suit up, he'll be looking to build on the average of 49.3 FD points he's generated over his last five games. However, his game also carries some blowout risk based on Boston's status as 12.5-point favorites.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Cade Cunningham, DET ($9,600)

Cunningham went off for 55.8 FD points two games ago against the Celtics, albeit without Tatum and Jrue Holiday available, and scored 63.5 against another tough defensive team in the Knicks his last time out.

Domantas Sabonis, SAC ($9,500)

Sabonis has at least 44.1 FD points in eight of the last 10 games, and he should be even more popular than usual due to the scarcity of centers on the small slate.

De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($9,000)

Fox essentially has an FD-point floor in the low 40s, which should make him very popular at his salary.

RJ Barrett, TOR ($8,900)

Barrett continues to enjoy elevated usage in the ongoing absence of Scottie Barnes and has scored between 42.3 and 51.9 FD points in three of his last five games.

Kristaps Porzingis, BOS ($8,200)

Porzingis will be well-rested with the Celtics having last played Saturday, and he's eclipsed 42 FD points in each of his last three times on the floor.

Key Values  

Jrue Holiday, BOS vs. DET ($5,800)

Holiday is another Celtics veteran whose body undoubtedly benefitted from the four consecutive days off between games Boston has enjoyed. The veteran guard was running hot before the layoff as well, scoring 41 and 35.3 FD points in the Celtics' two most recent games while taking a whopping 40 shot attempts during that span. Granted, that's a significant outlier in terms of Holiday's usage, and he went an abysmal 8-for-26 in the latter contest against the Grizzlies that turned into a full-on track meet. Nevertheless, Holiday has scored 27.8 FD points or more in eight of 21 games, so a strong score relative to salary is definitely within his range of outcomes. The Pistons have allowed 37.3 percent three-point shooting to point guards as well, along with 47.9 FD points per game to ones in the last seven contests.

Yves Missi, NOP vs. SAC ($5,600) 

Missi's outstanding rookie campaign shows no signs of slowing down, as the first-round pick is coming off yet another impressive double-double against the Spurs on Sunday that yielded 43.8 FD points. That marked Missi's third tally of more than 43 FD points already this season, and he's also put up 39.2 and 39.4 in another pair of contests. That's immense upside for his salary, and Thursday, he'll face a Kings team allowing the eighth-highest shooting percentage to centers (56.4), along with 52.9 FD points per game to the position in the last 15 contests. Sacramento is also conceding 5.3 blocks per game over the last three (up from an average of just under 4.0 prior to that), while Missi has multiple rejections in five of his last eight games alone.

Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. TOR ($4,800) 

Robinson has been outperforming his current salary with regularity of late, taking advantage of his first-unit role to eclipse 26 FD points in four of his last eight games while shooting 41.5 percent from distance over the entirety of that stretch. Robinson checks into Thursday with having scored over 30.4 and 30.1 FD points in his last two games, and he's facing a Raptors team that's allowed the third-most made threes (4.1) to two-guards over the last 15 games. Toronto is also surrendering the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating to the position on the season (25.0), furthering Robinson's case.

ALSO CONSIDER: Payton Pritchard, BOS vs. DET ($5,700); Gradey Dick, TOR at MIA ($5,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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