MLB Barometer: Keep an Eye on Edwin

No matter how prepared we are for the fantasy baseball season, curveballs are thrown at our heads almost immediately and without provocation. I'll touch on it more in the coming weeks, but just keep in mind what a long and grueling season we have on tap.

You may find yourself questioning your fourth-round selection of Chris Archer after a rough start against the Blue Jays this Sunday. Or wonder how you let Adam Jones fall past you in the fifth round after a two-homer afternoon against Ervin Santana on Opening Day. Trust your prep. Trust your instincts. There are good reasons why you drafted the players you did in those first few rounds. These are either players you believe will have good seasons, or were values where you took them. Be confident in your decisions and be patient with your best players in the early weeks of the season. You'll have plenty of time to add, drop, trade and tweak.

Most important, be sure to take a deep breath and soak it all in. Opening Day. This is the moment we've all been waiting for. I'm guessing most of you have already made plans to watch the games Sunday, and have put in your request for a vacation day (or call in sick) for Monday. If you plan to DFS, don't stress. If you're micro-managing your season-long league, be mindful of early fatigue. It's a full-fledged marathon, and we haven't even started warming up.

Keeping the intro short and sweet as I finish my prep for the big NFBC weekend in Las Vegas, here are a few predictions for the 2016 season:

• AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, CHW (darkhorse: Marcus Stroman, TOR)
• NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LAD (darkhorse: Stephen Strasburg, WAS)
• AL MVP: Mike Trout, LAA (darkhorse: Eric Hosmer, KC)
• NL MVP: Bryce Harper, WAS (darkhorse: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA)
• Best AL ERA: Tampa Bay Rays
• Best NL ERA: St. Louis Cardinals
• 2016's Jake Arrieta: Carlos Martinez, STL
• 2016's Dallas Keuchel: Jake Odorizzi, TB
• 2016's A.J. Pollock: Josh Harrison, PIT
• 2016's Mookie Betts: Corey Seager, LAD
• 2016's Carlos Correa: no one
• 2016's Kris Bryant: no one
• ALCS: Houston Astros over Kansas City Royals
• NLCS: Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers
• World Series Champs: Chicago Cubs

Risers

Travis Shaw (1B, BOS)

Shaw has been shooting up ADP charts the last couple weeks. He has risen more than 80 spots to pick 353 in March NFBC drafts. Shaw has been part of a well-publicized spring training battle for the third base job with Pablo Sandoval. Moreover, numerous scribes in the Boston area foresee plenty of at-bats coming his way this year, even if Sandoval sticks as the starter at third. Between third base, first base and left field, Shaw could potentially find his way into the Red Sox lineup for well over 100 games this season. Hanley Ramirez is far from a sure bet to stay healthy all year. Rusney Castillo is still a big question, failing to live up to the hype, or his fat contract. Castillo has also struggled with high-velocity arms in the majors as RotoWire colleague Clay Link pointed out in his spring battles piece over the weekend. Travis was never a high-pedigree prospect, but he grew up around major league clubhouses as the son of former reliever Jeff Shaw. Travis worked hard at every level and finally made an impression once promoted on Aug. 1, hitting .275 with 13 homers in 56 games. He is an average defender, but wields a solid bat and maintained a nice walk rate in the minors. Not a bad option as one of your last picks in 12-team leagues.

Gerardo Parra (OF, COL)

The Coors Effect seems to be an underrated topic of discussion this preseason. Perhaps it's because Troy Tulowitzki is no longer in the picture. Also, the team's two top fantasy assets after Nolan Arenado (Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez) have made it through the preseason with little fanfare. In fact, there is little hype on CarGo at his ADP despite his career-high 40 home runs last season. The home-park advantage is a monstrous one. The Rockies have led the majors in run and hit park factors every season since 2012. There are some serious undervalued assets on the squad this year, and Gerardo Parra looks like one of them. Parra's ADP makes him a 14th-rounder in 12-teamers and an 11th-rounder in 15-teamers. He is a plus defender with a light walk rate and a tough time against lefties, but has the ability to contribute to all five standard roto hitting categories. Hitting fifth behind CarGo and Arenado puts him in a good spot to top last season's career-high 83 RBI. Parra broke into the seventh round of a NFBC 15-team league recently, and it's possible we see continued movement in his ADP over this final week as folks recall the great advantage Rockies' hitters provide.

Logan Forsythe (2B, TB)

It's fair to expect some regression from Forsythe this season. After all, he set career highs across the board last year in his age-28 season. But 2015 was his first big-league season in which he came to the plate more than 350 times. Forsythe was named the tam's leadoff hitter this year, so perhaps the assumed regression balances out with the extra plate appearances should he stick in that spot most of the season. Nothing in his profile actually improved significantly. Not his walk rate, strikeout rate, fly-ball rate nor hard-contact rate. Projecting Forsythe for 2016, I expect a slight regression in average to the .260-.275 range along with fewer HR and RBI, but an increase in runs and steals. He is eligible at first and second base in most formats, though using him at first would be compromising some of your fantasy team's power. His ADP places him right around and below other middle infielders with upside like Jean Segura, Starlin Castro, Ketel Marte, Jonathan Schoop and Josh Harrison. In that range, I'd rather take my chances with the aforementioned guys with upside. Don't let the news of Forsythe's new role alter much in your opinion of his current ADP.

Jeremy Jeffress (RP, MLW)

The Brewers' ninth-inning situation became a lot clearer this weekend with Will Smith going down with a LCL injury. Jeffress has not been named the closer yet, but that's the direction manager Craig Counsell appears headed. Jeffress was a first-round pick of the Brewers in 2006, but did not make his major-league debut until 2010. He then spent the next three seasons shuttling between Triple-A and the majors with the Royals and Blue Jays before coming back to Milwaukee as a free agent prior to last season. Jeffress had troubles with seizures and was suspended twice for marijuana but finally (and significantly) contributed to a big-league club for the first time in his career last year. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning last season (67 in 68 IP) and induced ground balls 58 percent of the time. Jeffress will be shooting up ADP rankings this week. Be careful not to reach too high even if he's named the closer. Don't be surprised to see Corey Knebel takes over sooner than later and lead the Brewers in saves this year.

Honorable Mentions

Socrates Brito (OF, ARI) - He's shooting up the ADP almost on first name alone as plenty of fantasy players are doubtful of Yasmany Tomas. Brito is still raw and needs to develop his skills, having skipped Triple-A altogether. Bright future, but give the kid time.

Stephen Piscotty (OF, STL) - The former first-round pick has a high pedigree and will be a solid major leaguer, if not All-Star, for years to come. This year in fantasy circles, he's overshadowed by teammate Randal Grichuk. He has yet to develop power at any level, but he's a great contact hitter who batted .305 in his first 63 major league games.

Adam Conley (SP, MIA) - He has shot up more than 50 spots in the NFBC ADP since the beginning of the month off a hot spring and a spot in the rotation. Conley's not a huge prospect, but you could have success spot-starting him as your SP5 or SP6 against some of the NL's weaker opponents, to start.

Julio Teheran (SP, ATL) - He's atop the list with Michael Pineda as one of fantasy owners' most polarizing pitchers. There doesn't seem to be anything in between. He's clearly the ace of the Braves and will hope to rebound after a poor 2015 season. If he can get drop that control back down to his 2013/2014 levels, he should out-earn his ADP of 182 with ease.

Fallers

Edwin Encarnacion (DH, TOR)

I have yet to be privy to many of the draft details from the NFBC Main Event's first weekend, but it would be fair to assume that Encarnacion's ADP has taken a small dip based on the fact that he has yet to take part in a spring game because of an oblique injury. Encarnacion participated in full batting practice Saturday and should hopefully avoid a DL stint. Sure, it is prudent to be weary of oblique injuries. We saw how it affected Jason Kipnis' power two season ago. And we are all well aware of this injury's detriment to a power hitter's swing. The pain is very uncomfortable. Encarnacion has dealt with his fair share of injuries over his career but has managed to play at least 140 games in three of the last four seasons. Over those four seasons, he has averaged 38 HR and 106 RBI. This is just to remind you of the monster that he is. In fact, prior to the injury, Encarnacion was already feeling undervalued to me as a late second-rounder in 12-teamers. He can easily put up another first-round season. Let's keep an eye on Ency and his at-bats over the next week, should he get into game action. He may very well fall into third-round range, and if healthy, can provide you with one steal of a deal on draft day.

Ryan Braun (OF, MLW)

Although I am feeling bullish on Encarnacion, the same sentiment does not hold true for Braun. Despite losing respect for Braun after the PED fiasco three years ago, he is still one of my favorite hitters in the game. But we don't play to draft favorites, right? We want to win our leagues. Braun had a fine 2015 season, just one stolen base short of going 25/25. Over the winter, he had surgery on his lower back and has missed some time with discomfort in that area this spring. The back issue is not something I see simply going away. I foresee some time on the disabled list for Braun this year, not to mention, less running on the base paths. Besides those concerns, be sure to take another look at the lineup around him. Jonathan Lucroy likely will be shopped to a contender. Chris Carter could certainly drive Braun in from time to time, but don't expect the career .217 slugger with a 32-percent strikeout rate to do so often. Carter is a big downgrade from Adam Lind. Braun's ADP has tumbled into the range of other outfielders like Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez and Nelson Cruz. If you agree with me that the bags will end up in the sub-20 range, it will be hard to draft him over any of those other players.

Evan Gattis (DH, HOU)

Gattis has slipped ever so slightly in NFBC leagues -- from 241 overall before March 1 to 253 after. But I've seen him taken after round 25 in 12-team NFBC leagues. When Gattis comes to mind, we think "strikeouts" and "batting average drain." He gets further discounted because he is utility-only in just about every format. Digging in to Gattis' numbers, you'll note he kept his strikeout rate below 20 percent last year and around 20 for his major-league career. Additionally, his career batting average is .250, not in the Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena range that he is usually lumped into. Gattis is a flat-out beast when he plays. Streaky, yes. But he plays in a nice power park, with a great lineup around him. Gattis will start the year off on the DL, but could be back before tax day. If you're looking for some mid-to-late-round power, definitely give Gattis a long look. For what it's worth, he had a nice home split last year -- .273 average at home and .217 on the road. He could be especially useful in NFBC where roster moves can be made twice a week.

Jesse Hahn (SP, OAK)

Great ballpark, low walk rate, a strikeout-per-inning potential. What's not to like? How about his Cactus League outings? A 11.40 ERA in 15 innings. We're told not to take spring stats too much to heart, but you'd be crazy not to at least peek. Nothing appears wrong with him mechanically, and his velocity is the same 92-mph fastball from last year. Hahn got shelled again Monday and likely will get sent to Triple-A to get the kinks out for a week or two. Hahn had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and is near the top of the list of pitchers who could get hurt this year. I'm still targeting him late in 15-teamers, and now at an even better price with much of my competitors likely out of the running away based on his recent performance and this news. At the very least, I will keep an eye on him in the minors and try to get him on the cheap in FAAB.

Honorable Mentions

David Ortiz (DH, BOS) - Old, unsexy, low run totals and clogs up the DH. That means he keeps falling in drafts. He's worth your pick if you think his swan song includes another 30/90. I do.

Howie Kendrick (2B, LAD) - A likely DL stint means he's fallen into the reserve rounds. Carl Crawford's time as leadoff hitter will last as long as Kendrick's DL stint. He's a career .293 and is officially a steal in drafts.

Kevin Gausman (SP, BAL) - Right shoulder tendenitis has dropped Gausman's ADP over the last week. He could be ready for an April 10 start and should be the Orioles' best starting pitcher this year.

Scott Kazmir (SP, LAD) - Abdomen and velocity issues. Not a good combo. He was lights out before the All-Star break (2.49 ERA) and it skyrocketed over a full run to 3.86 after the break. The pitcher's park that Chavez Ravine is provides a nice advantage, but he's a tough buy at the current price with the warning flags.