This article is part of our MLB Daily Games Strategy series.
One thing I have to constantly remind myself about daily fantasy sports is that you're trying to score more points than your opponents, not merely score the most points. Of course, aiming for the highest score is a great way to start, and I do, but many expert DFS players will tell you that using a little bit of game theory is a good strategy. Game theory suggests you make your decisions based in part on what you expect others to do.
If you expect everyone to use Clayton Kershaw, use Felix Hernandez. Or, if we're talking about this Monday night, of course Marcus Stroman was the guy to pivot to. If Jose Bautista has a dream matchup, look to Giancarlo Stanton in a pitcher's park for an edge. The idea is, you can't beat your h2h opponent, or even 50% of the field in cash games if you have the same good players they do.
I admit, I struggle with this a lot, because 1) part of me is more willing to take the risk that the chalk player won't be as highly owned as perceived (this happens A LOT), and 2) fading the best player(s) in the best matchups feels like giving points away.
If you have read my columns for a while, you know that I'm fairly risk-averse. Rarely do I embrace the long-shot plays, and that has served me well in my 90% cash game play. Picking the best players with the best combination of talent, matchup, and park factors is how cash games should be played. I cash in GPPs usually because my cash game lineup goes off, not because I've created an especially contrarian lineup for that purpose. (I've said it before, but multi-entry GPPs are clearly the exception).
So I've wondered off and on how I can use game theory while still playing smart, conservative DFS. I did a study last year, for season long fantasy football actually, looking at whether the best skill players at each position come from the best teams. In other words, do individual fantasy points correlate with team record? I found that only QB showed such a correlation. Your top fantasy RB, WR, and TE are equally likely to play for the 13-3 team as the 2-14 team.
For comparison, I showed the correlation for fantasy baseball. 65% of the top 100 fantasy baseball players (according to ESPN's player rater) played for teams with a .525 record or better. Only 4% played for teams that were below .400 on the year. This isn't earth-shattering, I realize, since in baseball the things that produce fantasy points correlate extremely well with team runs, while in football, fantasy points for yards and receptions don't necessarily lead to team points.
To bring this around to 2014 DFS, I looked at the top team statistics in categories that should mirror daily fantasy points. For hitters, that would be runs scored (points for walks, hits, runs, and RBIs) and home runs. Applying game theory, we can pick players from teams on these lists that may not be on our opponents' radar.
Runs Scored
You have your obvious runs leaders: Angels, Tigers, Rockies, A's...but there at #5 is the Twins...Blue Jays, Orioles, and another surprise, the Nationals at #8...the Indians and Pirates round out the top 10.
Who to target:Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, along with Danny Santana (if healthy) are my go to Twins. Oswaldo Arcia and Chris Parmelee have their moments, but they're tough to pick. None of these guys, except perhaps Arcia, has very extreme platoon splits, so use them in any good park/pitcher matchups. Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond, Denard Span, and Jason Werth are all typically overlooked in favor of higher profile players. In good matchups, I like LaRoche vs RHP, Desmond vs LHP, and Rendon when his price is affordable.
Home Runs
In terms of HR leaders: Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays, ASTROS!!, CUBS!!!, Brewers, Tigers, A's, Nationals, Pirates.
Who to target: The Astros are a DFS expert's secret stack against LHP. I know that and even I was surprised that they're 4th in team home runs this year. Chris Carter's price refuses to rise despite the outstanding second half he's had. The Astros do change their lineup often, but they are always under-owned and, aside from Jose Altuve, underpriced.
The Cubs spot on this list owes a lot to the injured, but hopefully returning today, Anthony Rizzo. Secondary contributors are rookies. Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez, and Jorge Soler all had hot debuts. Baez is the one of the three I'm not interested in for DFS because if he doesn't hit a HR, he hurts you. They've all seen significant salary drops except for Soler, who is priced out in my opinion.
I think you can find smart ways to employ some game theory and be a little more contrarian in your lineups by letting the statistics guide your off the radar choices. We are definitely at the point in the season where baseball fans know who's good and who isn't, but there are always a few players that can provide sneaky power that go overlooked by DFSers. As long as you can justify the play using the numbers-Vegas lines, park factors, opponent pitching or hitting stats, taking the non-obvious team leaders can be a good strategy to diversify yourself from the crowd.
