The Z Files: Building an Aceless Staff

What follows are 100 starting pitchers, sorted into specific groups. Please note, these aren't tiers, though the pitchers are listed in order of preference within each group. Each group carries a trait necessary for a competitive staff. A mix of all these traits is needed. Please keep in mind the intent of this plan is for use in draft and hold leagues, though it can be adapted to standard leagues – you just don't have as deep a set of reserves available to make it work.

At least one arm from the first two groups is obligatory. A mix from the next pair is also necessary, though it doesn't matter which group is selected first, so let draft flow dictate the order. Ideally, you'll leave with at least five, hopefully six pitchers from the first four groups. After that, it doesn't matter which group is targeted, so long as someone from each is on the staff.

Included in the table is the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Average Draft Position (NFBC ADP) for all 15-team leagues completed after January 15, along with the minimum and maximum pick in that span followed by a pithy comment.

Group 1: Cross Your Fingers

The ADP for this group is after the fourth round. If you're choosing from the back end of Round 5, there's a good chance they're off the board. When this occurs, my play has been to draft another hitter and wait for the next group to start taking pitching, since it won't be long before I'm up in Round 6.

Group 2: Cross Your Fingers and Toes for your De Facto Ace

There's risk involved building a staff in this manner. However, if I land on one of this trio as my first arm, I'm confident it can be done. Thus far, it's worked out, and in some cases I've bagged two of the following troika.

Group 3: Ace Potential

This is the group where everyone has displayed ace skills, but is either an injury risk or inconsistent. If everything goes right, you've drafted an ace in a later round. Try to get at least one of this quartet.

Group 4: The Backbone

This group could be the key. The intent is to build up strikeouts and hopefully wins via volume, as each option pitches for a good team and is a reasonable bet to work into the sixth inning. Their skills aren't elite, but they're generally better than average. Their ratios are driven by some of the luck-oriented metrics, such as batting average on balls in play, home runs per fly ball and left on base percent. If Lady Luck is on your side, you won't miss an ace. If she's playing hard to get, you'll be regretting not grabbing an elite arm. I've been selecting at least two from this group.

Group 5: Breakout Potential

Here we're looking for this season's Patrick Corbin. Well, that may be a bit over the top, but last year Corbin's ADP was low 200s, and half this group is after that. Most of this set is one skill away, with health considered a skill. If this were a ranking tier, they have at least one, perhaps two or three tier upside. Hitting on someone from this tier doesn't replace an ace, but it facilitates streaming. Unless, of course, you get lucky and unearth this year's Corbin.

Group 6: Part-Time Aces

This could be my favorite group since so much ground can be made up. The notion here is all these hurlers are penalized for a lack of innings. Some are injury-prone, some are coming off injuries, and others are just young. However, on a per-appearance basis, they all project to be ranked much higher, even as aces. This is one of the reasons I don't pay attention to post-draft standings since they don't capture the pitchers in your lineup when this group isn't active.

The caveat with this group is they're much more palatable in a deep-roster, draft-and-hold league as opposed to one with a short reserve list, unless you can stash them on a DL or farm roster, and even then some won't be eligible. Still, in the NFBC Draft Championship, these arms are gold, especially since they're markedly discounted as most don't want to "waste" a roster spot on a part-time pitcher in the format.

Group 7: Streamers

The previous group are skilled enough to be active regardless of matchup, except perhaps in Coors Field or on the road facing the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox. This group needs to be managed, but when deployed in favorable scenarios, expectations for that game/week exceed season-long projections. In most cases, that scenario is a favorable home venue, but some play for better teams so their win potential is high, or they have strikeout upside which can be embellished when facing an offense that fans at an accelerated clip.

Group 8: Discounted Outliers

The common thread in this group is they can't be characterized in one of the other groups, but I'll gladly draft them at a discount. Often, I won't end up with someone from this group, but I don't want to ignore them either. Some were borderline for inclusion in other groups. There's a good chance you disagree with my grouping and shuffle them elsewhere.

Group 9: The Price Isn't Right

The Million Dollar Man Ted DiBiase insisted everyone had a price. He's right, but I've been playing this game for a long time and simply know I won't be drafting any of the final group at their current market price. The reasons are varied, but the bottom line is by the time I'd consider this group, someone else will have drafted them. Your team, your call.

I reiterate: these groups are designed for a draft-and-hold league with extended reserves, I'll aim for at least one from the first two groups and a minimum of five by Group 4. Then, in some order, at least a pair from Groups 5, 6 and 7. That's 11 starters out of the Top-120 or so, keeping in mind closers are also needed. In a draft and hold, the normal number of relievers is five or six, meaning around six more starters need to be drafted. At this point, it's throwing darts at anyone with a pulse.

In a league with seven reserves, drafting 11 starters leaves three spots for other reserves, which is a workable setup. As such, the method can be deployed in something like the NFBC Main Event, but realize it won't be long before injuries set in and your seven-man reserve is reduced to three or four active players, inhibiting the ability to manage pitching.

Next week we'll switch gears and I'll discuss my toughest hitters to project for the upcoming season.