This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
It feels like we've been getting more games on Thursdays recently, which is typically a traveling day for most teams. That's what we love to see from a DFS perspective, with 10 games making up this Thursday card. Three of them are during the day, so we're going to focus on the seven night-games that make up the main slate. There are three pitchers that we love, so let's start there!
Pitching
Tanner Houck, BOS at CWS ($11,000)
Most people talk about Luis Gil as the breakout pitcher of the season, but Houck deserves some consideration. The Red Sox righty has scored at least 28 FanDuel points in 11 of his 12 starts, generating a 1.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate. There are not many players with better averages, and we certainly can't fade him against Chicago. The White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA! That's why he enters this matchup as a -220 favorite!
Sonny Gray, STL vs. COL ($10,600)
We'd use any pitcher against the Rockies when they're on the road. Something happens to this team when they're outside of Coors Field, as they've ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA on the road in three of the last four years! That's a horrifying trend, especially with the way Gray has been pitching this season. Sonny has scored at least 33 FanDuel points in all but one start, totaling a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 rate. In his last start against Colorado in Coors Field, Gray scored 49 FD points! That has him entering this matchup as a -250 favorite!
Reynaldo Lopez, ATL at WAS ($9,500)
Lopez has turned into a different pitcher in Atlanta, scoring at least 27 FanDuel points in all but one start. The consistency has led to Reynaldo registering a 1.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate in what's turning into a breakout season. That's a far cry from the gas can we saw with the White Sox, but we expect it to continue in a matchup with Washington. The Nationals rank 22nd in OBP, 23rd in runs scored, 26th in wOBA and 27th in OPS.
Top Targets
Nolan Gorman, STL (vs. Cal Quantrill) $3,400
Gorman goes on these stretches where he looks like the best power hitter in baseball and that's what we're seeing right now. The slugging second baseman has nine homers over his last 15 games, providing a .429 OBP and 1.264 OPS across his last 20 outings. We've seen this guy go on runs like that before, and it's moved Gorman up to the cleanup spot in this Cards lineup. We also love that he has the platoon advantage against Quantrill and we'll dive into his numbers later on!
Teoscar Hernandez, LAD (vs. Bailey Falter) $3,100
Teo has one of the worst K rates in baseball, but this guy mashes the baseball when he gets a hold of it. The outfielder has a .484 career SLG and .224 ISO, hitting at least 25 dingers in four of the last five years. He's on pace to obliterate that total, recording 12 bombs across just 62 games. What we really love are his splits against southpaws, sporting a .284 ISO and .885 OPS against them throughout his career. It's not like we're fearful of a guy like Falter, who has a 4.69 career FIP. It will be expensive to stack the Dodgers, but Mookie Betts ($4,100), Will Smith ($3,700), Freddie Freeman ($3,800) and Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) are all in play.
Bargain Bats
Joc Pederson, ARI (vs. Randy Vasquez) $2,900
We had Joc Jams in here last week, and we're going right back to the well. The veteran is quietly having an amazing season for the D'Backs, amassing a .394 OBP and .920 OPS. The most important variable is that Joc gets to face a righty, typically batting cleanup or third in these circumstances. That's no surprise since Pederson has a .359 OBP and .850 OPS against right-handers over the last three years! We'll dive into the Padres pitcher later on.
Adam Duvall, ATL (vs. Mitchell Parker) $2,700
Duvall has always been a favorite value play whenever he faces a left-hander, slaughtering southpaws throughout his career. The slugger has a .388 OBP and .977 OPS against lefties this year and always bats in the heart of this dangerous Atlanta lineup when they face one. Parker's numbers might look scary on the surface but this lefty is due for some negative regression. He had a 4.64 ERA and 1.39 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A and could struggle with this talented lineup. Duvall is not the only Atlanta player we like, with Ozzie Albies ($3,800) and Austin Riley ($3,300) also getting the platoon advantage against Parker.
Stacks to Consider
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Rockies (Quantrill): Gorman ($3,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($2,800), Alec Burleson ($2,700)
It's going to be difficult to look at Quantrill's numbers and the Cards averages and want to use this stack but bear with me. Quantrill has been pitching well above his head, collecting a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last year. The advanced numbers tell us some nightmarish games are around the corner, with Quantrill compiling a 4.87 xFIP since the start of last season. This is the worst pitching staff in baseball, and we expect this guy to contribute to that sooner rather than later!
We already discussed Gorman as one of our favorite plays of the day, but we want to stack Goldy with him. The former All-Star has a 21-game on-base streak right now, providing a .340 OBP and .852 OPS in that span. That's the stud we've become accustomed to, with Goldy generating a .385 career OBP and .899 OPS. Burleson is the best value of the bunch, homering in three straight games while accruing a .834 OPS against righties this year.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Padres (Vasquez): Ketel Marte ($3,600), Corbin Carroll ($3,000), Christian Walker ($3,600) and Pederson ($2,900)
It was difficult to find a second team we wanted to stack but Arizona should have success against Vasquez. The Padres pitcher has only thrown one quality start all season, accumulating a 5.74 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He's also got a 6.65 ERA and 1.71 WHIP since the opener and is only in this rotation because Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are injured.
Marte is the best option in Arizona, amassing a .536 OBP and 1.309 OPS across his last six outings. Carroll is tough to trust when looking at his season-long numbers, but this guy was an MVP candidate last year for a reason. He had 25 homers and 54 steals last season behind his .868 OPS and could find some form since he has the platoon advantage against Vasquez. Walker is the final piece of the puzzle along with Pederson, with Christian collecting a .354 OBP and .820 OPS this year.
